Triangulating Surprise: Expectations, Uncertainty, and Making Sense
نویسندگان
چکیده
Surprise is a ubiquitous phenomenon that both draws on cognition and affects cognition, in a number of different ways. For example, in artificial intelligence an agent in a changing and imperfectly-known environment has been argued to need a surprise mechanism to survive. This symposium brings together researchers in education, computer science, cognitive psychology, and business to explore the relationship between surprise and cognition, and how it might be harnessed across domains. We will open with a touchstone challenge: How can surprising information be recruited to promote learning? (Munnich & Ranney) Then we will explore several perspectives on surprise, ranging from violation of expectations created through repetition (Loewenstein) to a focus on the information content of surprising events (Maguire & Maguire), to the apparently conflicting roles surprise may play in judgment (May, Smith-Rodden, & Ash). Our final speakers (Foster & Keane) will synthesize these approaches, and present a broad framework for future research on surprise within the cognitive sciences.
منابع مشابه
Making sense of surprise: an investigation of the factors influencing surprise judgments.
Surprise is often defined in terms of disconfirmed expectations, whereby the surprisingness of an event is thought to be dependent on the degree to which it contrasts with a more likely, or expected, outcome. The authors investigated the alternative hypothesis that surprise is more accurately modeled as a manifestation of an ongoing sense-making process. In a series of experiments, participants...
متن کاملComparing uncertainty data in epistemic and ontic sense used to decision making problem
In the paper aspect of comparability alternatives in decision making problem by imprecise or incomplete information isexamined. In particular, new definitions of transitivity based on the measure of the intensity preference between pairsof alternatives in epistemic and ontic case is presented and its application to solve decision making problem is proposed.
متن کاملInvestigating the Difference between Surprise and Probability Judgments
Surprise is often defined in terms of disconfirmed expectations, whereby the surprisingness of an event is thought to be dependent on the degree to which that event contrasts with a more likely, or expected, outcome. We propose that surprise is more accurately modelled as a manifestation of an ongoing sense-making process. Specifically, the level of surprise experienced depends on the extent to...
متن کاملPupil Dilation Signals Surprise: Evidence for Noradrenaline’s Role in Decision Making
Our decisions are guided by the rewards we expect. These expectations are often based on incomplete knowledge and are thus subject to uncertainty. While the neurophysiology of expected rewards is well understood, less is known about the physiology of uncertainty. We hypothesize that uncertainty, or more specifically errors in judging uncertainty, are reflected in pupil dilation, a marker that h...
متن کاملNeural Mechanisms of Updating under Reducible and Irreducible Uncertainty.
Adaptive decision making depends on an agent's ability to use environmental signals to reduce uncertainty. However, because of multiple types of uncertainty, agents must take into account not only the extent to which signals violate prior expectations but also whether uncertainty can be reduced in the first place. Here we studied how human brains of both sexes respond to signals under condition...
متن کامل